A Risk Prediction Model for Mortality in Patients with Dilated Cardiomyopathy

Nuraly A. Kurbanov, Ravshanbek D. Kurbanov, Timur A. Abdullaev, Igor A. Tsoy, Regina Sh. Bekbulatova

International Journal of Biomedicine. 2018;8(2):118-122.   
DOI: 10.21103/Article8(2)_OA2
Originally published June 15, 2018  


The aim of this study was to build a risk prediction model for 1-year mortality on the bases of clinical and functional indicators in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM).
Materials and Methods: The study included 205 patients (aged from 16 to 61 years) with DCM and chronic heart failure in NYHA FC II-IV. The study included the collection of anamnestic data, physical examinations, clinical and biochemical laboratory methods, 12-lead ECG, echocardiography, and Holter ECG monitoring , 6-minute walk test. The duration of follow-up was 3 to 170 months (36.7±5.6). The study end-points were death (sudden death or progression of heart failure) and thromboembolic complications (pulmonary embolism, ischemic stroke, thromboembolism of the vessels of kidneys and lower extremities).
Results: A sequential evaluation of clinical-anamnestic and instrumental data with analysis of the life expectancy and the subsequent construction of a risk prediction model for 1-year mortality by the method of multiple stepwise logistic regression was performed. In accordance with the results of multiple regression analysis, among the clinico-functional parameters, NYHA class III/IV, low blood pressure, a relatively young age, abnormal QRS complex, high-grade ventricular arrhythmias and an increase in LVESV/LVEDV ratio (>0.66) are the most influencing factors for a fatal outcome within 1 year of observation.

dilated cardiomyopathy • risk stratification • life expectancy • prognosis
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Received March 22, 2018.
Accepted April 2, 2018.
©2018 International Medical Research and Development Corporation.